據油價網2020年4月15日報道，業內知情分析人士日前表示，雖然美國頁巖產量下降是油價暴跌造成的直接后果，但低油價已經在能源市場引發了一系列事件，這將不可避免地影響美國石油化工行業的供應鏈。

英國調查公司IHS Markit在其最近的一份分析報告中表示，由于油價暴跌，石化產品供應鏈可能正在陷入困難境地。

專家和美國能源信息署(EIA)表示，美國石油產量下降將導致產油井的伴生天然氣產量下降，從而導致今年剩余時間美國每月天然氣產量下降。

然后，美國天然氣產量的下降也將打擊天然氣液體的產量，包括乙烷、丙烷、丁烷和天然汽油，這些都是石油化工部門的重要原料或用于取暖和烹飪的燃料。例如，乙烷和丙烷是用于生產塑料和樹脂化合物石化產品的關鍵原料。

根據EIA匯編的統計數據，隨著頁巖氣近幾年來的蓬勃發展，美國油田的天然氣液體日產量也創下了500多萬桶的歷史新高。

IHS Markit中游石油和天然氣液體集團主管維拉爾·梅赫塔表示，在過去兩年中，天然氣液體產量在2017年至2019年期間大幅增長了27%。

就在3個月前，分析師們還在預計美國的天然氣液體產量今明兩年將繼續增長。去年12月，業內資深分析人士告訴NGI的《頁巖日報》，在石油導向鉆井作業中擴大和增長管道天然氣液體輸送能力將在2020年推動美國天然氣液體產量的增長。

在疫情爆發之前，IHS Markit曾預計美國天然氣液體產量將繼續過去兩年的強勁增長，到2021年將增長近19%。

然而，疫情影響導致的需求銳減引發了油價暴跌和歐佩克+組織打起價格戰，其結果是WTI原油價格跌至每桶20美元以及美國石油和天然氣產量下降。

現在，IHS Markit預計未來兩年美國天然氣液體的總產量將或多或少持平。

IHS Markit的梅赫塔日前曾表示：“然而，考慮到美國和(尤其是)全球對天然氣液體的需求預計在未來兩年內仍將增長，美國天然氣液體‘重置’可能會給石化供應鏈帶來麻煩。”

EIA在其最新的4月短期能源展望報告中預計，美國天然氣廠液體燃料產量將從今年第一季度的每天512萬桶下降至明年第一季度的每天473萬桶，然后在明年第一季度以后開始增長。

根據能源數據分析公司Enverus的統計數據，在低油價的預期中，美國天然氣液體產量在2021年將下降。

能源咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲表示，天然氣液體供應是繼煉油廠供應之后的第二個與能源連接的關鍵原料。伍德麥肯茲分析師在4月初的一篇評論文章中稱，短期天然氣液體供應比煉廠供應更為強勁，但北美上游部門的資本支出削減“將在中期內直接影響石化買家”。擁有最大原料靈活性的資產將處于最佳位置。

伍德麥肯茲分析師們指出，“凍結的經濟活動和不穩定的原料價格將對‘石化行業’產生直接而巨大的影響”。

所有這些預測都表明，過去兩個月石油市場發生的戲劇性事件將影響全球能源行業的每一個角落。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Oil Price Crash Is Upending The Petrochemicals Industry

While the U.S. shale production decline is the immediate outcome of the price collapse, low crude oil prices have triggered a chain of events in the energy markets that will inevitably impact the supply chain of the petrochemicals industry, analysts say.

There could be trouble brewing in the petrochemicals supply chain because of the oil price collapse, IHS Markit said in a recent analysis.

The lower U.S. oil production will lead to lower associated natural gas production from oil-directed wells, resulting in monthly declines in U.S. natural gas production through the rest of the year, according to experts and the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Then the decline in U.S. natural gas production will also hit the production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) — ethane, propane, butanes, and natural gasoline – which are used as feedstocks for the petrochemicals sector or burned for heating and cooking. Ethane and propane, for example, are key feedstocks for petrochemicals used for producing compounds to manufacture plastics and resins.

In lockstep with the shale gas boom in recent years, U.S. field production of NGLs has surged to record highs of more than 5 million barrels per day (bpd), as per EIA data.

Over the past two years, NGLs production jumped by 27 percent between 2017 and 2019, said Veeral Mehta, director on the Midstream Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) group at IHS Markit.

Just three months ago, analysts expected that America’s NGLs production would continue to grow this year and next. Expanding pipeline NGL capacity and growth in oil-directed drilling were set to push U.S. production of NGLs higher in 2020, analysts told NGI’s Shale Daily in December 2019.

Before the coronacrisis, IHS Markit expected that U.S. NGL production would continue its strong growth from the past two years and rise almost 19 percent by 2021.

However, the coronavirus pandemic triggered the oil price crash and the OPEC+ family drama, the result of which is WTI Crude at $20 per barrel and lower oil and natural gas production in the U.S.

And now IHS Markit expects total U.S. NGLs production to be more or less flat over the next two years.

“However, given that US and (especially) global demand for NGLs is still forecast to grow in the next two years, this US NGL "reset" could spell trouble for the petrochemical supply chain,” IHS Markit’s Mehta wrote last week.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for April, the EIA sees natural gas plant liquids production in the U.S. dropping from 5.12 million bpd in Q1 2020 to 4.73 million bpd in Q1 2021, before starting to grow after the first quarter of 2021.

According to energy data analytics company Enverus, U.S. NGLs production is set to decline over the next year amid expectations of low oil prices.

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says that NGLs supply is the second key energy-linked feedstock after refinery supplies. Short-term NGLs supply is more robust than refinery supplies, WoodMac analysts said in an opinion piece at the beginning of April.

Short-term NGLs supply may be more robust, but the capital expenditure (capex) cuts in North America’s upstream sector “will directly affect petrochemical buyers in the medium term. Assets with the most feedstock flexibility will be best positioned,” Wood Mackenzie said.

“Frozen economic activity and volatile feedstock pricing will both have an immediate and dramatic impact” on the petrochemicals sector, the analysts noted.

All these projections show that the dramatic events in the oil market over the past two months will affect every corner of the global energy industry.