據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)8月29日?qǐng)?bào)道，EIA預(yù)計(jì)，高庫(kù)存水平和過剩的原油生產(chǎn)能力將限制未來幾個(gè)月油價(jià)的上行壓力，但隨著2021年庫(kù)存下降，這些上行壓力將增加。EIA估計(jì)，今年上半年，全球液體燃料庫(kù)存以每天640萬(wàn)桶的速度增長(zhǎng)，今年下半年將以每天420萬(wàn)桶的速度下降，2021年將每天下降80萬(wàn)桶。

EIA估計(jì)，7月份全球石油和液體燃料的日均需求量為9340萬(wàn)桶。與2019年7月相比，日需求減少了910萬(wàn)桶，但比今年第二季度的日均8500萬(wàn)桶有所上升，今年第二季度日需求同比減少1580萬(wàn)桶。EIA預(yù)測(cè)，今年全球石油和液體燃料的日均消費(fèi)量將為9310萬(wàn)桶，較2019年減少810萬(wàn)桶，2021年將增加700萬(wàn)桶。與新冠疫情相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)減少，導(dǎo)致2020年能源供需格局發(fā)生變化。

據(jù)EIA估計(jì)，2020年第二季度全球液體燃料的日均產(chǎn)量為9180萬(wàn)桶，同比下降860萬(wàn)桶。產(chǎn)量的下降反映了歐佩克和其同盟國(guó)歐佩克+自愿減產(chǎn)，以及美國(guó)因低油價(jià)而減少鉆井活動(dòng)和減產(chǎn)。在預(yù)測(cè)中，全球石油供應(yīng)將在2020年第三季度繼續(xù)下降到9040萬(wàn)桶/天，然后2021年將上升到年均9940萬(wàn)桶/天。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA – GLOBAL OIL DEMAND EXPECTED TO DECLINE BY 8.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2020

中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊

EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase. EIA estimates global liquid fuels inventories rose at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2020 and expects they will decline at a rate of 4.2 million b/d in the second half of 2020 and then decline by 0.8 million b/d in 2021.

EIA estimates that demand for global petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 93.4 million b/d in July. Demand was down 9.1 million b/d from July 2019, but it was up from an average of 85.0 million b/d during the second quarter of 2020, which was down 15.8 million b/d from year-ago levels. EIA forecasts that consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels globally will average 93.1 million b/d for all of 2020, down 8.1 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 7.0 million b/d in 2021. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns in 2020.

EIA estimates that global liquid fuels production averaged 91.8 million b/d in the second quarter of 2020, down 8.6 million b/d year over year. The decline reflects voluntary production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+), and reductions in drilling activity and production curtailments in the United States because of low oil prices. In the forecast, the global supply of oil continues to decline to 90.4 million b/d in the third quarter of 2020 before rising to an annual average of 99.4 million b/d in 2021.